Aim: Climate change is altering habitat suitability for many organisms and
modifying species ranges at a global scale. Here we explored the impact of
climate change on 112 pine species (Pinus), fundamental elements of
Northern terrestrial ecosystems. Location: Global. Methods: We applied a
novel methodology for species distribution modelling that considers
uncertainty in climatic projections and taxon sampling, and incorporates
elements of species’ recent evolutionary history. We based our niche
calculations on climate and soil data and computed projections across
multiple algorithms and IPCC scenarios, which were ensembled into one
single suitability map. We then used phylogenetic methods to account for
recent evolution in climatic requirements by estimating the evolution of
climatic niche. Edaphoclimatic and evolutionary analyses were then
combined to calibrate the projections in areas showing high uncertainty.
We validated our models using naturalized occurrences of invasive pine
species. Results: Our models predicted that by 2070 most pine species
(58%) might face important reductions of habitat suitability, potentially
leading to range losses and a decrease in species richness, particularly
in some regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and South North America,
albeit migration might mitigate these shifts in some cases. In contrast,
our projections showed increased habitat suitability for approx. 20% of
species, which may undergo range expansions under climate change.
Moreover, the consideration of recent evolutionary trends modified
projected scenarios, decreasing range loss and increasing range expansion
for some species. The independent validation endorsed our models for many
species and the influence of recent evolution in some cases. Conclusions:
We predict that climate change will impose drastic changes in pine
distribution and diversity across biogeographical regions, but the
magnitude and direction of change will vary significantly across regions
and taxa. Species-level responses are likely to be influenced by regional
conditions and the recent evolutionary history of each taxon.