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What is the relationship between environment and democracy? The framework
of cultural evolution suggests that societal development is an adaptation
to ecological threats. Pertinent theories assume that democracy emerges as
societies adapt to ecological factors such as higher economic wealth,
lower pathogen threats, less demanding climates, and fewer natural
disasters. However, previous research confused within-country processes
with between-country processes and erroneously interpreted between-country
findings as if they generalize to within-country mechanisms. In this
article, we analyze a time-series cross-sectional dataset to study the
dynamic relationship between environment and democracy (1949-2016),
accounting for previous misconceptions in levels of analysis. By
separating within-country processes from between-country processes, we
find that the relationship between environment and democracy not only
differs by countries but also depends on the level of analysis. Economic
wealth predicts increasing levels of democracy in between-country
comparisons, but within-country comparisons show that democracy declines
as countries become wealthier over time. This relationship is only
prevalent among historically wealthy countries but not among historically
poor countries, whose wealth also increased over time. By contrast,
pathogen prevalence predicts lower levels of democracy in both
between-country and within-country comparisons. Our longitudinal analyses
identifying temporal precedence reveal that not only reductions in
pathogen prevalence drive future democracy, but also democracy reduces
future pathogen prevalence and increases future wealth. These nuanced
results contrast with previous analyses using narrow, cross-sectional
data. As a whole, our findings illuminate the dynamic process by which
environment and democracy shape each other.
114 views reported since publication in 2019.