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Globally we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be
notably felt in semi-arid regions across the world. Cultivation of
drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based
solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase
agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally
sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help
mitigate atmospheric CO2 emissions, and (iv) increase soil sequestration
of CO2. Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important
pre-requisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bio-economy’.
Here we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa
under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution
modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and
regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature
variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical
distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current
and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for growth of at
least one of the species is met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These
results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land
for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion
hectares could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for
succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and
yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new
opportunities for farmers, governments, and key stakeholders in the
agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic
alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.
98 views reported since publication in 2023.