Aims: The Middle East, located in the arid belt of the Earth, is home to a
diverse range of biodiversity, with its mountain ecosystems being the most
important centers of species diversity and endemism. In this study, the
impact of climate change on alpine bird species in the Middle East was
assessed across five mountain systems: Alborz – Kopet-Dagh, Caucasus –
Pontic, Levant – Taurus, Sarawat – Hijaz, and Zagros – Central Iran.
Location: Middle East Methods: Using species distribution models (SDMs),
38 native alpine bird species were analyzed under different climate change
scenarios. We also identified future multi-species in-situ and ex-situ
climate refugia and assessed the efficiency of the current protected areas
(PAs) system in protecting them. Results: The results indicated that, on
average, habitat suitability for these species is projected to decline by
36.83% (2050, SSP2-4.5) to 60.10% (2070, SSP5-8.5) with an upward range
shift. Based on stacking range change of the species, Levant – Taurus,
Zagros – Central Iran, and Alborz – Kopet-Dagh mountain ranges will
experience the highest amount of habitat loss, respectively, with Caucasus
– Pontic being least affected. The gap analysis showed that the existing
PAs system covers only 13 and 10 percent of the in-situ and ex-situ
climatic refugia, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings underscore the
significance of mountainous regions in the Middle East for the persistence
of alpine bird species and the urgent need to prioritize climate refugia
in trans-boundary and participatory conservation plans. It is crucial to
prevent habitat degradation and alteration resulting from human activities
in these areas to ensure the persistence of alpine species and their
habitats.