2 Citations 1.1K Views 55 Downloads
Brazil currently has one of the fastest growing SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in
the world. Owing to limited available data, assessments of the impact of
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on virus spread remain
challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs
reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1–1.6 in São Paulo and
Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a
geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100
international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%)
of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from
Europe between 22 February11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase,
we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within-state borders.
After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated
multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25%
increase in average travelled distances in national flights. This study
sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories
of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil, and provide evidence that current
interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control
in the country.
1,072 views reported since publication in 2020.